Concept

Zero-sum game

A game in which one party's gain is exactly the other's loss, so the whole situation is described by a single number per cell. Mixing forces the two cautious valuations to coincide, and that common value is what each side can guarantee whatever the other does.

Named by 7 essays across 2 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

The value of a 2×3 zero-sum game, named from both sides. The row chooser's expected payoff against each column as a line over the mixing probability, with the lower envelope and its maximum, beside the same construction from the column chooser's side. Both give 19/15.

The value from both sides

Two choosers move at the same instant, and each asks the cautious question — how much can be guaranteed, whatever the other does. With pure choices the two answers are usually different numbers; allow a probability and they are forced to be the same one.

applied · Equilibrium
A signal both can see, and neither wants to disobey. A two-by-two game with a distribution over its four cells, drawn as the weight on each. Obeying the recommendation is a best reply for both choosers, and the pair collects 21/2 between them.

A signal both can see

Two choosers who randomise privately can reach a set of outcomes that is smaller, and worse, than the set they reach when a device draws one cell and whispers each of them their half of it. Nothing is enforced and nobody is bound, and the arrangement is stable anyway.

applied · Equilibrium
Announcing a mixture is worth 5/3 more than any equilibrium. The leader's payoff against the probability it announces for its first action, for a leader with a dominant action that is better off not being seen to play it, with the follower's reply switching where the follower is indifferent. The best announcement is worth 11/3; the best equilibrium of the simultaneous game is worth 2.

Worth more for being seen first

Moving first sounds like a disadvantage, since the other side gets to see the move and answer it. When the move is a mixture that is announced and believed, it is never a disadvantage, it is worth exactly nothing in a game of pure conflict, and in other games it is worth more than any equilibrium — sometimes by announcing an action that would never be played in secret.

applied · Equilibrium
The payoffs repetition makes available in the prisoner's dilemma. A plot of the two choosers' average payoffs, with the stage game's four cells marked, their convex hull drawn, the two minmax values shown as lines, and the region above both shaded.

Patience instead of a contract

Commitment had to assume an announcement binds. Play the same game again tomorrow and the assumption is unnecessary — the future does the binding. What it costs is that nearly every outcome becomes an equilibrium, so a theory that could not choose between two now cannot choose between infinitely many.

applied · Equilibrium
How much the first player can guarantee, as the coin's bias moves. A plot of the first player's best guaranteed winning chance in Penney's game against the probability of heads, a third on a fair coin and rising past one half only when the coin is heavily biased.

A coin that lets the first player win

On a fair coin the second player in Penney's game always has a better pattern than the first, and the first can hold them to no worse than two to one. Bend the coin and every overlap is paid for in the letters it uses: the replies change, the first player's share swings between a third and a half, and past a heads chance of 1/∛2 the first player simply names HHH and wins.

probability · Expectation
Three random games and the cells where best replies meet. Three random 5 by 5 games with best replies marked; pure equilibria (cells best for both players): 0, 1 and 2.

A third of random games have no pure equilibrium

Fill a game's payoff table with random numbers and ask whether some cell is each player's best reply to the other. Exactly one cell is expected to be, at every size, and the chance that none is climbs from one in eight to 1/e — the same constant that counts the shuffles in which nobody gets their own hat back, and for the same reason.

applied · Equilibrium
Where the equilibria of a random four-by-four game are found. 7 equilibria with supports (1, 1), (3, 2), (4, 3), (13, 12), (14, 13), (34, 23), (134, 123).

Every random game has an odd number of equilibria

Find every equilibrium of eleven thousand random games — pure and mixed, by trying every pair of strategy sets the players might mix over — and the totals are 1, 3, 5, 7, … and never an even number. The count is a sum of signs: equilibria of index +1 outnumber those of −1 by exactly one in every game. The average grows about 28% with each strategy added, and searching for the game with the most turns up the coordination game's 2ⁿ − 1, a pattern that holds only up to five strategies.

applied · Equilibrium

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Nash equilibriumMixed strategyMinimaxBest replyCommitmentConditional probabilityConvexityCorrelated equilibriumDominant strategyEquilibrium selectionExhaustive searchLinear program

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