Concept

Best reply

The option that pays a chooser most, given what everybody else is doing. An equilibrium is exactly a state where every chooser's option is one, which is why marking every best reply on a payoff matrix and boxing the cells carrying both is a complete search for equilibria.

Named by 11 essays across 2 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

The link that makes every traveller later. Four nodes and two routes, with the equilibrium flow and travel time before a zero-cost link is added between A and B and after. The travel time rises from 10 to 12.

The road that makes everyone later

An equilibrium is a state nobody can improve alone, which is a much weaker thing than a state anybody would choose. Adding a link that costs nothing to use makes every traveller in this network strictly slower, and the arithmetic says by exactly how much.

applied · Equilibrium
A signal both can see, and neither wants to disobey. A two-by-two game with a distribution over its four cells, drawn as the weight on each. Obeying the recommendation is a best reply for both choosers, and the pair collects 21/2 between them.

A signal both can see

Two choosers who randomise privately can reach a set of outcomes that is smaller, and worse, than the set they reach when a device draws one cell and whispers each of them their half of it. Nothing is enforced and nobody is bound, and the arrangement is stable anyway.

applied · Equilibrium
A landscape nobody is looking at, and every move goes downhill on it. The 8 states of a congestion game with 3 participants and two resources, ordered by Rosenthal's potential, with every improving unilateral move drawn as an arrow. Every arrow points downward.

The landscape nobody is looking at

Letting participants move one at a time to whatever is currently better can cycle forever, and on a network of congestible roads it cannot. The reason is a single number attached to each state that falls by exactly what the mover saves.

applied · Equilibrium
Two equilibria, and two tests that disagree. The row chooser's expected payoff from each option against the column chooser's behaviour, for a joint effort worth more than a safe one. The lines cross at 0.750, which is the mixed equilibrium and the boundary between the two basins.

Two equilibria and no way to choose

A game can have two states nobody wants to leave, one paying more than the other, and the definition of an equilibrium has nothing to say about which happens. The two standard tie-breakers disagree, and the one that wins is usually the worse.

applied · Equilibrium
A population that settles at 2/3. A contest over a prize worth 4 that costs 6 to fight for. Left: the growth rate of the share playing Hawk against that share, which is nought at 0, at 2/3 and at 1. Right: the share over time from 5 starting points, all converging on 2/3.

A mixture that is a population

A mixed equilibrium between two choosers is a knife-edge nobody has a reason to stand on. Read the same mixture as a population whose shares grow with how well they do, and it becomes a point every population is carried to — or one every population circles for ever without arriving.

applied · Equilibrium
Announcing a mixture is worth 5/3 more than any equilibrium. The leader's payoff against the probability it announces for its first action, for a leader with a dominant action that is better off not being seen to play it, with the follower's reply switching where the follower is indifferent. The best announcement is worth 11/3; the best equilibrium of the simultaneous game is worth 2.

Worth more for being seen first

Moving first sounds like a disadvantage, since the other side gets to see the move and answer it. When the move is a mixture that is announced and believed, it is never a disadvantage, it is worth exactly nothing in a game of pure conflict, and in other games it is worth more than any equilibrium — sometimes by announcing an action that would never be played in secret.

applied · Equilibrium
The payoffs repetition makes available in the prisoner's dilemma. A plot of the two choosers' average payoffs, with the stage game's four cells marked, their convex hull drawn, the two minmax values shown as lines, and the region above both shaded.

Patience instead of a contract

Commitment had to assume an announcement binds. Play the same game again tomorrow and the assumption is unnecessary — the future does the binding. What it costs is that nearly every outcome becomes an equilibrium, so a theory that could not choose between two now cannot choose between infinitely many.

applied · Equilibrium
The band two equilibria occupy, and the point a noisy reading leaves. A line of values of the payoff parameter with three regions marked — staying out dominant, both actions equilibria, investing dominant — and a single threshold inside the middle region.

The reading that is almost right

Every account of simultaneous choice so far has assumed the payoffs are known to both choosers and known to be known. Replace that with each chooser seeing a private reading off by a little, and a band of equilibria closes to a single point — so the assumption nobody states decides the answer.

applied · Equilibrium
A rule that meets the diagonal, and the same rule with a hole in it. Two panels, each the graph of a rule assigning a set of values to every point of the unit interval, drawn against the diagonal: the first meets the diagonal at a filled-in jump, the second has the jump left open and misses it.

A map that offers a choice

Brouwer's theorem needs a function, and the object it was most wanted for is not one — a best reply is a whole set whenever a chooser is indifferent. Allow a point to be sent to a set and the fixed point survives, provided the sets are convex, and the convexity is the entire hypothesis.

topology · Fixed points
Fictitious play that never settles. Shapley's 3 × 3 game, 34 runs in 2,000,000 rounds; final mixtures row 0.371, 0.456, 0.173, column 0.253, 0.544, 0.203.

A best reply to the past

Let two players each answer the whole history of the other's play as though it were a fixed plan. In a zero-sum game the history closes in on the equilibrium, as Julia Robinson proved in 1951. In Lloyd Shapley's three-by-three game it never does: play runs round six profiles for ever, each run the one before plus the one three before plus two, so the runs grow by the real root of x³ = x² + 1 and every run is a fixed share of all the history.

applied · Equilibrium
Where sellers stand when nobody wants to move. 2 sellers: 1 equilibria (e.g. 12,12 of 24); 3 sellers: 0 equilibria; 4 sellers: 3 equilibria (e.g. 6,6,17,18 of 24); 5 sellers: 4 equilibria (e.g. 4,4,12,19,20 of 24); 6 sellers: 25 equilibria (e.g. 3,3,9,14,20,21 of 24).

Sellers on a street stand back to back

Put two ice-cream sellers on a beach and they end up side by side in the middle, though customers would walk half as far if they stood at the quarter marks. Three sellers never settle at all: whoever is squeezed in the middle leaps outside, for ever. Four stand in pairs, five in pairs with one alone in the centre, six in endlessly many ways. Let them set prices too, with travel costing the square of the distance, and the conclusion reverses: the two sellers move as far apart as the beach allows.

applied · Equilibrium

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Nash equilibriumMixed strategyEquilibrium selectionExistence proofZero-sum gameConditional probabilityConvexityCorrelated equilibriumDominant strategyExhaustive searchMinimaxCommitment

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