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Concept

Stationary distribution

A distribution over a Markov chain's states that the chain leaves unchanged: as much flows into each state as out. On a finite chain that can reach everywhere it exists, is unique, and is what a single long run's time averages settle on.

Named by 8 essays across 3 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

A walk that visits each state as often as its weight says. The target distribution over 12 states with the share of a 40,000-step Metropolis run beside each bar, above the first 300 steps of the walk itself; the two distributions differ by 0.5 per cent in total.

A walk that samples a distribution

When a distribution can be evaluated but not drawn from, a wandering point can be arranged to visit each state as often as its weight says. The rule needs no normalising constant, compares two weights and steps or stays.

probability · Monte Carlo A walk on a weighted graph, and a cycle whose traffic goes one way. A weighted graph with the long-run share of each state read off its total weight, beside a three-state cycle whose shares are equal and whose traffic circulates.

The chain that runs the same backwards

Put weights on the edges of a graph, step to a neighbour in proportion to them, and the long-run share of a state is its own weight over the total — read straight off the picture, with nothing to solve. The condition that makes that work is strictly stronger than being stationary.

probability · Markov chains The time a single walk spends in each state, against the share it should hold. Paired bars for each state, one the fraction of a long run's time spent there and one the computed stationary share, above a table of expected return times.

The time spent and the share held

Stationary shares are a limit of distributions — where the walk probably is after many steps. Here the question is about a single walk: the fraction of its time spent in each state is that state's share, and the expected wait between visits is exactly the reciprocal.

probability · Markov chains One walk on the whole numbers, three chances, three different fates. The relative weight of each state for three step-up chances, drawn as bars, with the running total of those weights and what each case means beneath.

Where the shares have nowhere to go

On finitely many states, a chain that can reach everywhere and is not forced into a rhythm settles down. Give it infinitely many and both conditions can hold while the walk leaves and never returns — or returns with certainty and takes an unbounded average time about it.

probability · Markov chains How fast a chain forgets where it started. The total variation distance to the stationary distribution plotted logarithmically against the number of steps, for each of 3 starting states. The curves are straight lines of equal slope.

How long until it forgets

The essays before this one settle where a chain ends up and how much time it spends there, and none of them asks how long the settling takes. That question has an exact answer, it is a single number, and it is the only thing any practical use of a chain depends on.

probability · Markov chains The map moved to the other side of the product. Two panels over the unit curve of the product u₁v₁ + u₂v₂. The left applies A to u and measures it against v, giving 2.328; the right applies the adjoint to v and measures it against u, giving the same number.

Moving a map across a product

The transpose looks like a fact about a matrix: reflect its entries in the diagonal. It is a fact about the inner product. Measure lengths and angles differently and the map that slides to the other side of the product is a different matrix, and a matrix that was symmetric stops being so.

algebra · Inner product Press everything and the odd degrees light. Pressing every vertex lights exactly the odd-degree vertices; all 1024 all-odd-degree graphs on 6 vertices are litable; overall 18259 of 32768.

Half the chance for every silent set

In the lights game where a press toggles only the neighbours, a random network can be lit about 56 times in a hundred when it has an even number of vertices and 44 when odd. The numbers are 0.560562 and 0.439438, they add to one, and they come from a chain: each new vertex raises or lowers the dimension of the silent sets by one, and each dimension halves the chance.

computation · Finite fields Two losing games that win together. A alone: -3.000 after 300; B alone: -3.131 after 300; A or B at random: 4.428 after 300; A A B B repeated: 4.322 after 300.

Two losing games that win together

Game A is a coin that wins 49.5% of the time. Game B tosses a bad coin when the capital is a multiple of three and a good one otherwise, and it loses too, because the capital spends more than a third of its time on multiples of three. Choose between the two games at random and the walk drifts upwards by 0.0157 a round; play A, B, B over and over and it gains 0.0574. Nothing is wrong with the arithmetic. The losing coin A wins by knocking the capital off the bad remainder.

probability · Random walk

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Markov chainRandom walkProbabilityDetailed balanceEigenvectorExpectationInvariantLimitAdjointConvergenceDriftEigenvalue

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