Concept
Bayes' theorem
2 essays name this object, across one field. What follows is each of them, and the objects they name alongside it.
Also named here as conditional probability — the same set of essays touches all of them, so they are one junction rather than several.
Bayes' theorem is a picture of a square
A test that is 99% accurate returns a positive result. The chance it is right can easily be under one in five, and the reason is visible the moment the population is drawn as a square rather than described as a formula.
The door that was not opened
Three doors, one prize, a host who opens a losing door and offers a swap. Switching wins two times in three, and the reason is not about doors — it is about what the host was allowed to do.
Named alongside it
The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.
AreaConditional probabilityBase rateCounting argumentFalse positiveIndependenceLikelihoodMonty hallNatural frequenciesSample space