Concept

Condorcet cycle

A set of candidates each of which loses to another, so following the majorities round arrives back where it started. Its existence is why a majority verdict between pairs need not assemble into any ranking at all.

Named by 8 essays across one field — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

A majority cycle over 3 candidates, and how often 3 voters produce one. The majority tournament as a directed polygon with each arc's margin, beside one cell for every profile of the stated size, filled where no Condorcet winner exists.

The majority that goes in a circle

Every voter hands in a ranking, and a ranking is transitive by construction. Compare the candidates two at a time and let the majority decide each pair, and the verdicts need not fit together into a ranking at all.

applied · Voting rules
Five rules on one profile of 27 ballots, and 5 different winners. The ballot groups as columns beside a table of five voting rules with the winner each returns and the count that decided it.

Five rules and five winners

Twenty-seven ranked ballots, five entirely reasonable ways of counting them, and five different candidates declared the winner. Every count is correct, every rule is defensible, and the answer turns out to be a property of the rule rather than of the ballots.

applied · Voting rules
Independence of irrelevant alternatives, broken by Borda. Two profiles that agree on every voter's ranking of two candidates and differ only in where the others sit, with the rule's verdict between the two reversed.

Four conditions, and no rule that has all of them

Five reasonable rules can return five different winners on one set of ballots, which invites the obvious question of which one is right. The answer is that the conditions anybody would write down cannot all hold at once — and here each named rule's own violation is found by search rather than quoted.

applied · Voting rules
Every ballot one voter could submit under instant runoff. One voter's true ranking beside every ranking that voter could submit instead, with the winner each produces and the profitable misreports marked.

A lie that pays

A ballot is usually read as a report of a preference. This one reads it as a move, and walks every move one voter has — all six rankings, the winner each produces, and the ones that beat honesty.

applied · Voting rules
The nearest consistent verdict: a 3-way tie at distance 4. A table of the 4 consistent judgement sets on the agenda p, q, and p and q, each with its number of disagreements with each of 3 judges and the total; the smallest total is marked.

The nearest consistent verdict

When a court's majorities contradict each other, one repair is to announce the consistent verdict that disagrees with the judges least. It treats the premises and the conclusion alike, which neither of the two standard procedures does. On the classic case it returns a three-way tie; on five judges, with every question weighted equally, it never returns a single answer on a troubled profile at all — and what breaks the tie is a decision about which question matters more.

applied · Judgement aggregation
Which agendas majority can vote on safely. A table of 7 agendas with the size of their largest minimally inconsistent set and the count of inconsistent majority outcomes over all profiles of three and five judges.

Agendas that cannot contradict themselves

A court voting on two unconnected questions never contradicts itself, and neither does one voting on a chain of thresholds. A court voting on two premises and their conjunction sometimes does. What separates them is the size of the smallest sets of judgements that cannot all be true: pairs are harmless, because two majorities always share a judge, and triples are not. The same count says exactly how large a supermajority has to be to stay consistent on any agenda.

applied · Judgement aggregation
How often three candidates' majorities go in a circle. The exact probability that pairwise majority among three candidates is cyclic, for every odd number of voters from 1 to 41, under two models of how ballots are drawn, with their limits of about 8.77% and 6.25%.

How often the majority goes in a circle

Three voters and three candidates give 216 profiles, and 12 of them are cycles. Count every electorate up to 41 voters exactly and the share climbs towards 8.77%, a number Guilbaud found in 1952 as the solid angle where three half-spaces at the tetrahedral angle overlap. Add candidates and a winner goes missing half the time; let voters share one axis and cycles vanish. The number is always a property of the model of how ballots are drawn.

applied · Voting rules
What survives on each agenda, 3 judges. A table of four agendas with, for each, the size of its largest inconsistent set, the number of independent unanimous rules for 3 judges, how many are consistent on every profile, and how many of those are dictatorships, oligarchies and other rules: two unconnected questions 324 of 324; a chain of two thresholds 129 of 324; two premises and their conjunction 7 of 5,832; a ranking of three options 3 of 5,832.

What the agenda leaves standing

Ask for a rule that settles each question from the votes on that question, follows a unanimous court and never contradicts itself, and search every such rule for three judges. On a ranking of three options, three survive: one dictator per judge. On two premises and their conjunction, seven survive: every rule in which a fixed set of judges must all agree. On a chain of thresholds, a hundred and twenty-nine, majority among them. The difference is not in the rules. It is in which answers force which, and whether that forcing ever runs back.

applied · Judgement aggregation

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Pairwise majorityPreference profileExhaustive searchVoting ruleCounterexampleImpossibility theoremJudgement aggregationMajority ruleIndependence of irrelevant alternativesQuota ruleTournamentArrows theorem

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