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Order out of noise — page 3

Random processes that reliably produce the same shape, and the reason that is less mysterious than it looks.
The cubic curves over GF(43) with the most and the fewest points. The solutions of two equations y squared equals x cubed plus ax plus b over the field with 43 elements, drawn as dots on a square grid: the curve with the most points and the curve with the fewest. Computation

Give or take twice the square root

A cubic curve over the integers mod 43 should have about 44 points — one for each value of x, on average, and one at infinity. No curve misses by more than 13, the largest whole number below 2√43, and every count from 31 to 57 belongs to some curve. The first fact is Hasse's theorem, the second Deuring's, and the way the counts spread between the limits is a semicircle.

 How many of 8 people get their own hat, against the Poisson with mean 1. Paired bars for each number of people getting their own hat: the exact share of arrangements and the Poisson probability with mean one, nearly equal at every count. Probability

How many get their own hat

The chance that nobody gets their own hat settles on 1/e. The chance that exactly one person does settles on 1/e too, exactly two on 1/(2e), exactly three on 1/(6e) — the Poisson distribution with mean 1. The reason is a set of averages that come out exactly 1 at every size, and the counts reach the limit so fast that eight hats are within six ten-thousandths of it.

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