Topology
Which knots a random loop ties
Long random loops are almost always knotted, but knotted as what? Sorting 14,000 closed random polygons by two values of the Alexander polynomial answers it. The trefoil leads at every length, five times as common as the figure-eight at 400 sticks. Each knot's share, divided by the unknotted share, grows like a power of the length, and the trefoil tied twice grows about twice as fast as the trefoil — what a loop carrying independent small tangles would do. Up to 300 sticks the double trefoil turns up exactly as often as two independent trefoils should.
