Ramsey theory — the series
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Six people at a party
Among any six people, three are mutual acquaintances or three are mutual strangers. Five is not enough, and the arrangement that saves five is a pentagon. Beyond that the numbers become unknowable.
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Eighteen people, and the seventeen that escape
Among any eighteen people, four are mutual acquaintances or four are mutual strangers. Seventeen can be arranged so that neither happens, and the arrangement is not a lucky find — it is a rule about squares.
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The colouring nobody has ever seen
Count the monochromatic sets a random colouring is expected to contain. If the average is below one, some colouring has none — and the argument is finished, having produced nothing anyone can look at.
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Three in a row on the number line
Colour the numbers one to eight in two colours and it can be arranged that no three equally spaced numbers agree. Add the ninth and it cannot. The structure being forced is arithmetic rather than graphical, and the proof is a different proof.
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The sequence that cannot avoid a staircase
Any ten numbers in a row contain four that climb or four that fall. The proof gives every term a pair of counters, notices that no two terms can share a pair, and is finished — with a bound that is exactly right.
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Every crowd holds a bowl or a dome
Among enough points in the plane, some k of them always bend upward like a bowl or some l bend downward like a dome. The number that forces it is a binomial coefficient, it is exactly right, and it proves that every large enough crowd contains a convex polygon — with a bound nobody could lower to the true answer for eighty years.
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The longest climb of a shuffle
Erdős and Szekeres guarantee that any n distinct numbers hold a climb or a fall of √n, and there are orders that allow nothing more. Shuffle a deck at random instead and the longest climb is almost exactly 2√n — with fluctuations of size n to the power one-sixth, distributed exactly as the largest eigenvalue of a large random matrix.
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The longest climb in a cube
Among n random points in a square, the longest chain rising to the right has about 2√n points, a fact with a famous proof. Put the points in a cube and ask for a chain rising in all three directions, and its length is about c·n^(1/3) for a constant nobody knows. Béla Bollobás and Peter Winkler proved that the constants for every dimension stay below e and creep up to it. The upper bound is a single count of chains, and simulation shows how far below it the real chains fall.