Series

Equilibrium — the series

9 essays on one idea, from the one that introduces it to the one that assumes the rest.
  1. The value of a 2×3 zero-sum game, named from both sides. The row chooser's expected payoff against each column as a line over the mixing probability, with the lower envelope and its maximum, beside the same construction from the column chooser's side. Both give 19/15.

    The value from both sides

    Two choosers move at the same instant, and each asks the cautious question — how much can be guaranteed, whatever the other does. With pure choices the two answers are usually different numbers; allow a probability and they are forced to be the same one.

    part 1 · applied
  2. The link that makes every traveller later. Four nodes and two routes, with the equilibrium flow and travel time before a zero-cost link is added between A and B and after. The travel time rises from 10 to 12.

    The road that makes everyone later

    An equilibrium is a state nobody can improve alone, which is a much weaker thing than a state anybody would choose. Adding a link that costs nothing to use makes every traveller in this network strictly slower, and the arithmetic says by exactly how much.

    part 2 · applied
  3. A signal both can see, and neither wants to disobey. A two-by-two game with a distribution over its four cells, drawn as the weight on each. Obeying the recommendation is a best reply for both choosers, and the pair collects 21/2 between them.

    A signal both can see

    Two choosers who randomise privately can reach a set of outcomes that is smaller, and worse, than the set they reach when a device draws one cell and whispers each of them their half of it. Nothing is enforced and nobody is bound, and the arrangement is stable anyway.

    part 3 · applied
  4. A landscape nobody is looking at, and every move goes downhill on it. The 8 states of a congestion game with 3 participants and two resources, ordered by Rosenthal's potential, with every improving unilateral move drawn as an arrow. Every arrow points downward.

    The landscape nobody is looking at

    Letting participants move one at a time to whatever is currently better can cycle forever, and on a network of congestible roads it cannot. The reason is a single number attached to each state that falls by exactly what the mover saves.

    part 4 · applied
  5. Two equilibria, and two tests that disagree. The row chooser's expected payoff from each option against the column chooser's behaviour, for a joint effort worth more than a safe one. The lines cross at 0.750, which is the mixed equilibrium and the boundary between the two basins.

    Two equilibria and no way to choose

    A game can have two states nobody wants to leave, one paying more than the other, and the definition of an equilibrium has nothing to say about which happens. The two standard tie-breakers disagree, and the one that wins is usually the worse.

    part 5 · applied
  6. A population that settles at 2/3. A contest over a prize worth 4 that costs 6 to fight for. Left: the growth rate of the share playing Hawk against that share, which is nought at 0, at 2/3 and at 1. Right: the share over time from 5 starting points, all converging on 2/3.

    A mixture that is a population

    A mixed equilibrium between two choosers is a knife-edge nobody has a reason to stand on. Read the same mixture as a population whose shares grow with how well they do, and it becomes a point every population is carried to — or one every population circles for ever without arriving.

    part 6 · applied
  7. Announcing a mixture is worth 5/3 more than any equilibrium. The leader's payoff against the probability it announces for its first action, for a leader with a dominant action that is better off not being seen to play it, with the follower's reply switching where the follower is indifferent. The best announcement is worth 11/3; the best equilibrium of the simultaneous game is worth 2.

    Worth more for being seen first

    Moving first sounds like a disadvantage, since the other side gets to see the move and answer it. When the move is a mixture that is announced and believed, it is never a disadvantage, it is worth exactly nothing in a game of pure conflict, and in other games it is worth more than any equilibrium — sometimes by announcing an action that would never be played in secret.

    part 7 · applied
  8. The payoffs repetition makes available in the prisoner's dilemma. A plot of the two choosers' average payoffs, with the stage game's four cells marked, their convex hull drawn, the two minmax values shown as lines, and the region above both shaded.

    Patience instead of a contract

    Commitment had to assume an announcement binds. Play the same game again tomorrow and the assumption is unnecessary — the future does the binding. What it costs is that nearly every outcome becomes an equilibrium, so a theory that could not choose between two now cannot choose between infinitely many.

    part 8 · applied
  9. The band two equilibria occupy, and the point a noisy reading leaves. A line of values of the payoff parameter with three regions marked — staying out dominant, both actions equilibria, investing dominant — and a single threshold inside the middle region.

    The reading that is almost right

    Every account of simultaneous choice so far has assumed the payoffs are known to both choosers and known to be known. Replace that with each chooser seeing a private reading off by a little, and a band of equilibria closes to a single point — so the assumption nobody states decides the answer.

    part 9 · applied

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