Series

Collatz — the series

8 essays on one idea, from the one that introduces it to the one that assumes the rest.
  1. The Collatz orbit of 27. Halve an even number, triple an odd one and add one; the sequence plotted on a logarithmic scale.

    The question nobody can answer

    Halve it if it is even, triple it and add one if it is odd. Every number anyone has tried comes down to one. Nobody can prove they all do, and the reason is not that the problem is hard to state.

    part 1 · dynamics
  2. The share that provably comes down. The proportion of starting values that fall below their own start within k steps, plotted against k up to 12. The proportion rises towards one; at the largest k drawn it is 0.94.

    Almost every number comes down

    The Collatz conjecture is open and a great deal about it is not. Whether a number falls below its own start in the first few steps is decided entirely by its remainder on division by a power of two, and the share of numbers for which it happens can be counted exactly.

    part 2 · dynamics
  3. Downhill on average, and never on purpose. The logarithms of 4 Collatz orbits plotted against step number, each wandering upward and downward and each ending at one. A separate sample of four thousand starts gives an average fall of -0.15 per step.

    The heuristic that cannot be a proof

    There is a two-line argument that the Collatz conjecture is true, it is convincing, and everybody who works on the problem believes it. It also cannot be turned into a proof, and understanding exactly where it fails is more instructive than the argument itself.

    part 3 · dynamics
  4. The only fractions that could be a cycle's shape. A table of the convergents of the base-two logarithm of three, with the approximation error, the exact value of two to the n less three to the k, and that value as a fraction of three to the k.

    How short a cycle could be

    The drift argument cannot see cycles at all, which is why it is not a proof. What can see them is arithmetic — a cycle's shape has to be a fraction that approximates the logarithm of three to base two extraordinarily well, and there are very few such fractions.

    part 4 · dynamics
  5. Every parity pattern of length up to 12, and each occurring exactly once. A bar for each pattern length, showing the number of distinct parity patterns produced by all remainders of that power of two, which equals the number of remainders at every length.

    Every pattern happens exactly once

    Choose any sequence of odds and evens and there is exactly one residue class whose orbit follows it, and exactly one fraction that cycles through it forever. The Collatz conjecture is then the statement that only one of those infinitely many cycles is made of whole numbers.

    part 5 · dynamics
  6. The Collatz map on the 2-adic integers, before and after changing to parity coordinates. Two scatter plots of 2048 points: the Collatz map on 2-adic integers in binary-digit coordinates, a scattered cloud, and the same map in parity-vector coordinates, where every point lies on the two lines of the doubling map.

    Where the Collatz map is a coin

    Extend the Collatz map from the whole numbers to the 2-adic integers — binary strings that run on for ever to the left — and it stops being mysterious. It becomes, after a change of coordinates, the simplest chaotic system there is: shifting a string of coin tosses one place. Everything about it is then known, and none of it says anything about the whole numbers, which is the most instructive failure in the whole story.

    part 6 · dynamics
  7. PRIMEGAME: fourteen fractions whose powers of two are the primes. The size in binary digits of the numbers produced by Conway's PRIMEGAME from 2 over 40000 steps, with the pure powers of two marked; their exponents are 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29.

    Fourteen fractions that list the primes

    Change the Collatz rule so that the multiplier depends on the remainder modulo some other number than two, and the resulting maps can compute anything a computer can. John Conway proved it in 1972, which means no method can decide, for every such map, whether its orbits come down — and fourteen fractions, applied in order, turn out to be enough to print every prime.

    part 7 · dynamics
  8. How high an orbit climbs. 1:1 2:2 3:16 7:52 15:160 27:9232 255:13120 447:39364 639:41524 703:250504 1819:1276936 4255:6810136 4591:8153620 9663:27114424 20895:50143264 26623:106358020 31911:121012864 60975:593279152 77671:1570824736 113383:2482111348 138367:2798323360 159487:17202377752 270271:24648077896 665215:52483285312 704511:56991483520 1042431:90239155648 1212415:139646736808 1441407:151629574372 1875711:155904349696 1988859:156914378224 2643183:190459818484 2684647:352617812944 3041127:622717901620 3873535:858555169576 4637979:1318802294932 5656191:2412493616608 6416623:4799996945368 6631675:60342610919632

    How high an orbit climbs

    The Collatz orbit of 27 climbs to 9,232 before it falls, and below ten million the champion, 6,631,675, climbs to sixty trillion — almost exactly the square of where it started. That is not a coincidence of the two numbers but a law of the whole family: an orbit climbs to x times its start with a chance of about one in x, and the exponent is one because half of three-halves plus half of a half is exactly one. Among N starts the luckiest climbs about N-fold, and so the records grow like the square of the start.

    part 8 · dynamics

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